50 Years Too Soon?

 My new book (Tube Town – Frontier) has received good reviews. I’m thankful. However, a criticism I received from one reader is that the book's time frame seems to be about 50 years too early for the technical level displayed. I don’t know specifically which technical level the reader is referring to – whether it is the time frame for the human spaceflight milestones or whether it is one or more of the many technologies described in the book.

Regarding my timeline for human space travel, I believe it is very plausible and not 50 years away. I have humans returning to the Moon in the mid-2020s, 3-4 humans doing extreme camping on the surface during lunar days in the 2026 - 2027 time period, and increasing robotic exploration of both poles. (These events are not far off the NASA Artemis mission timelines).

My story timeline has two key dependencies:

1.     The discovery of a well-located intact lava tube by 2028
2.      The ability to regularly launch (a cadence of 10 per year rather than 1 every two years) over 100 tons of payload to the surface of the Moon (SpaceX Starship and perhaps others) by that time.

Converting an existing natural structure into a large, safe base is much cheaper than constructing a large base on the surface. Much of the material needed to convert the tube can be produced from in situ material. Lunar lava tubes are gigantic (bigger than those on Earth or Mars). Such a large structure can hold many people plus a factory big enough to build spacecraft, a farm, recreation, and even habitation services for tourism. Converting a lunar lava tube into a base means the difference between having outposts on the Moon vs. cities on the Moon. Outposts are sufficient to do science and exploration but it will take a city to start commerce.

In the book, Tube Town takes three years to be sectioned, pressurized, and outfitted for continuous human habitation. After the tube is inhabited, it is not until the end of 2032 that the first cargo mission is launched to Mars. I have the first crewed launch to Mars in the mid-to-late 2030s. This timeframe is admittedly ambitious, but not implausible. Having a large, safe, sustainable factory/habitat on the Moon can accelerate the rate of progress. Robotic construction and exploration should be doing the majority of the lunar work supplemented by humans -bots then boots.

The reader is probably referring to some of the technical advances that appear in the book. As I outlined in my previous blog article Tube Town – Frontier, the How-To Book nearly all the future technologies described in the book are already ‘a thing’:

·        bubble bees

·        oxygen-producing artificial leaves  

·        radiation-eating fungi

·        self-healing material for micrometeor punctures

·        sulfur (waterless) concrete   

The discoveries have been made, but the technologies are at different points of the development spectrum. Some are research projects, some are prototypes, and some have been demonstrated. I’m not wholly making this stuff up, but I have enhanced some with other emerging technologies or extrapolated efficiencies and improvements into the near future (artistic license). 

Will it be 50 years before all these technologies are operational? No. Are the time frames for some of these technologies shakier than others? Oh, yes.

My shakiest predictions:

·        Mobile mini magnetospheres on spacecraft  

Creating a mini mag for spacecraft radiation protection (like Earth and lunar swirls on the Moon) has long been a science fiction dream, but it is now much closer to reality. Previous estimates of the power requirements and field size were too high. Estimates are now around 20kw of onboard power creating a magnetic field of around 1km. Continuous improvements in superconductors and the ability to “paint” high-temperature crystalline superconductors directly onto structures have been demonstrated in prototypes. Such continuing improvements paired with launching in a vacuum like the Moon, that only requires the power of cooling – make this technology even more feasible. I think we are perhaps 10 – 20 years away, especially if testing and optimization can be done on the Moon, but not 50 years.

·        Directed energy weapons (pew-pews) 

The US (and probably other countries) is developing directed energy weapons in space. A hand-held version of this old standard of science fiction is now only a matter of compact energy storage away. The first models will probably have a limited capacity, but laser technology is mature and will function very effectively in a vacuum – for puncturing things.

·        Re-growing human limbs

Ok, this one could be 50 years away, but I think perhaps less than that with recent discoveries. Incorporating nanites into the process was probably a bridge too far in this time frame.

 

 When I began writing my book, I purposely decided to take an optimistic view of progress and timelines. Why?

“I found myself doubting that anything practical could be done with the Grand Tour in view of our nation’s slow progress in obtaining spaceflight capability. However, ten years were available to overcome the engineering difficulties, and on second thought, motivation supplied by a goal like this one could have a real impact on progress… Cutting saw the possibilities immediately, but there were many naysayers in the ranks at JPL. They scoffed at designing a space vehicle that could survive many years and a close passage at Jupiter.” - Gary Flandro 1965. Not one, but two, spacecraft were launched in 1977 (Voyager 1&2). They achieved fly-bys of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn’s moon Titan. The spacecraft are still communicating 45 years later and have reached interstellar space. This is why. Regardless of the accuracy of my time frames, I aim to inspire and create a plausible yet interesting science fiction novel. I would rather be too optimistic than fall in with the naysayers. Read it and let me know how I did. Hope you enjoy it!

 

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